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Dissident Republican groups ‘have UK sleeper cells’
Police Federation chairman and law enforcement analysts warn that groups active in Northern Ireland have plans to strike mainland targets.
Concern is growing that increasingly well organised dissident Republican groups may have successfully set up sleeper cells in preparation for attacks on the UK mainland.
Terry Spence (pictured), Chairman of the Police Federation for Northern Ireland, told PoliceOracle.com that all the indications suggested that terrorist groups would now move to further their desire to attack targets outside of the province – and he had contacted colleagues from the Fed in England and Wales to warn them.
Mr Spence also expressed concern that the individuals involved in the cells may have “clean hands” – having not been convicted of any criminal matters – making them more difficult to detect.
As previously reported on PoliceOracle.com, there have been concerns of mainland attacks by dissident Republicans for some time, although these have not yet come to pass.
In May 2011, the Met received a coded bomb warning shortly before the Queen visited Dublin – although no device was found. A dissident group claimed they were responsible.
The threat level from this type of terrorism on the UK mainland remains at Moderate – although it is currently at the upper-end of Severe in Northern Ireland.
Mr Spence, who has more than 30 years of experience in the Royal Ulster Constabulary and the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), said terrorist groups had grown in their levels of sophistication. He also pointed out that history clearly showed terrorists would target the UK mainland to further their cause.
The chairman added: “Unfortunately, history has a horrible habit of repeating itself. It is certainly highly likely that are currently cells operating on the mainland UK.”
Mr Spence was backed in his views by senior counter-terrorism analysts, who agreed that there was “a determination” among the terrorists to attack mainland targets.
Andy Oppenheimer, an expert on Irish Republican equipment and bomb technologies and tactics, said the situation was further complicated because the new generation of terrorists were far more disparate in their aims than the old Provisional IRA.
“It is difficult to understand what they are likely to do because they are so splintered,” said Mr Oppenheimer, who is the author of IRA: The Bombs and the Bullets: a History of Deadly Ingenuity and a member of the International Association of Bomb Technicians. “Those involved in the Provisional IRA were undoubtedly ruthless, but they were also politically sophisticated with defined objectives.
“That said, however, if there is now dissident Republican activity on the mainland UK it could set things off in a totally different direction. The Provisional IRA did this in the 1970s and 80s, and especially in the 1990s, when they set off several massive vehicle bombs in the City of London – with the maxim, ‘One bomb in London is worth 20 in Belfast.’ Attacking the mainland now would be difficult, but not impossible.”
Justin Crump, Chief Executive of risk management firm Sybilline, also believed that Republican dissidents had a strong desire to carry out attacks on the mainland.
He explained they could exploit links to a infrastructure that still existed from the days of the provisionals – with sympathisers in some areas who could be deployed to assist. In addition, he believed that the 2011 bomb warning was a genuine attempt by a dissident group to check whether their procedures would work.
But Mr Crump also stressed that the Irish Garda – along with the PSNI – had scored some notable successes in taking both terrorists and weapons out of circulation in Ireland, and that the groups were being severely hindered in their aspirations.
“Without doubt, however, there is a determination there to attack – and I would share the view that there are sleeper cells currently in existence on the UK mainland,” he added.
